By M.A.Kadir

LANGKAWI, May 20 — As the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition (LIMA 25) opens today, a significant silence echoes over the tarmac. Two notable absences—the Indian Air Force’s Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team and France’s Dassault Aviation, maker of the Rafale jet—have left industry observers questioning what this subdued presence means for defense diplomacy in Southeast Asia.

Just yesterday, Malaysia’s Defense Minister confirmed that India’s prestigious Surya Kiran team would not participate this year. Hours later, a senior official from the Ministry of Defence (MinDef) added that Dassault Aviation is not listed among the exhibitors—a noticeable shift for a company that has long sought market visibility in the region.

The timing of these exits is far from incidental.

On May 9, Reuters reported that Rafale jets operated by India were shot down in a confrontation with Pakistan, which notably deployed Chinese-made J-10C fighters during the engagement. It marked a rare combat loss for the highly marketed French jet and introduced a new chapter in the unfolding strategic rivalry between Western and Chinese defense platforms.

What the absences signal? LIMA has been historically served not only as a commercial hub for aerospace deals but also as a platform for defense signaling and power projection. Surya Kiran’s aerobatics have long symbolized India’s soft power outreach to ASEAN. Dassault’s participation, meanwhile, has typically reinforced France’s stake in Southeast Asia’s lucrative defense market.

Their dual absence now sends a more muted message:

“This is not the year for theatrics — it is the year for recalibration.”

Whether driven by reputational risk, strategic pause, or post-clash caution, the messaging is unmistakable.

The reported shooting down of Indian Rafale jets by Pakistan, using China’s J-10C, is not just a tactical event — it is a narrative shift. The Rafale, often marketed as a generational leap in air combat, has now faced its first significant combat credibility test against Chinese hardware — and lost.

For France, it raises uncomfortable questions about the Rafale’s edge and survivability.

For India, it marks a setback in the perception of its air superiority.

For China, it is a boost to the credibility of its export aircraft in a market long dominated by Western suppliers.

This clash and its aftermath are likely to be watched closely by countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, all of whom are juggling interest from Western vendors and Chinese defense diplomacy.

Malaysia, while not directly involved, finds itself at a pivotal juncture. Its recent procurement of South Korea’s FA-50 light combat aircraft signals a preference for cost-effective, interoperable solutions. Dassault’s quiet withdrawal from LIMA 25 may reflect an internal acknowledgment that Rafale has little traction in Putrajaya’s defense calculus — at least for now.

The absence of Surya Kiran, meanwhile, may suggest that India is reassessing the effectiveness of soft-power showcases in markets where defense contracts are trending elsewhere.

As such, the skies above LIMA 25 are different this year — quieter, yes, but also more telling.

The nonappearance of Surya Kiran and Dassault Aviation, against the backdrop of a Rafale setback at the hands of China’s J-10, is more than coincidence. It reflects a moment of strategic introspection for both India and France, and a reshuffling of influence in Southeast Asia’s competitive defense theatre.

As new players rise and old alliances are tested, one thing is clear – the battle for air superiority is no longer just in the skies — it is on the showroom floors, in the headlines, and between the lines.